Almond Market Update - March 24, 2022

Why have spring when you can go straight to summer? This week we have already hit over 89 degrees in many areas of the valley. It appears to be cooling off next week, but the fluctuation in temperatures speaks to the changing climate conditions we continue to experience in the west and a harbinger of things to come.

Attitudes towards the almond market have remained mixed this week. With an excess in supply, buyers feel that prices should see a decline. Growers feel prices should continue to rise considering worsening drought conditions, and potential lowered crop yields due to the unknown damage from the freeze earlier this year.

Supply for some sizes and varieties have quickly dwindled. In fact, Nonpareil 27/30 and larger is all but gone at this point. The majority of what remains are pollinizers in sizes 30/32 and smaller. Price differentials will continue to increase as the crop year progresses and more and more specific products are no longer available until new crop. In the meantime, there will be bargains on other varieties that are there to fill in the gaps. “Flexibility” will be the key to fill these needs going forward.

The drought in the west will be experienced by all. As we saw this year, the almond sizes (CPO=count per ounce) were down dramatically. With the continued drought, this same issue is expected to be prevalent once again. As a result, there may not be new crop offers for larger sizes come early this year; and if there are, expect a premium to be associated with those offers.

Upcoming Milestones:

Shipment Report: April 12, 2022
NASS Acreage Report: April 21, 2022
Subjective Estimate: May 11, 2022
Objective Estimate: July 6, 2022

Week 13 Update

Bullish Trends:

1. The industry has done a great job this year selling out the majority of the largest variety Nonpareil (39% of the crop). Remaining supply will likely move at a premium compared to the lower levels following harvest.
2. Product development featuring almonds has never been greater, in fact the excitement throughout all tree nuts is exciting to see as plant-based alternatives continue to grow. Anyone who visited the Natural Products Expo West can attest to this growing trend!
3. Despite the unrest overseas, markets are beginning to return to a more normal existence. It is only a matter of time before we see demand exceeding supply, especially as we try to tackle logistical challenges.

Bearish Trends:

1. The lack of containers and ships to export will remain until the industry realizes if you want to ship it, you will have to pay for it. Bargain rates are a thing of the past, at least for now.
2. Concerns are still growing surrounding the freeze that happened in the north part of the state. It is important to remember this was a small percentage overall, and it only takes 20% of the flowers to set for it to be considered a “good” crop.
3. We will have a crop, and with the large carry-out of close to a billion pounds, pressure on the pollinizers will continue through next year.

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