Almond Market Update - February 3, 2022

Happy February. As previously reported, January was one of the driest months on record, with no significant rain or snow after a wonderful December. Having been up to Kirkwood over the weekend, I can attest that there is still plenty of snow from the 118” received over the holidays. Spring skiing in 50-degree temperatures in January is not something anyone would expect and is also not a good sign. Forecast in the valley is for continued sunshine through the next 10 days with temps in the high 60’s and low 70’s. This aligns perfectly for the bloom which typically starts the second week of February.

The industry finished off January with strong sales. Looking forward to continued market growth as the industry appears to have set a bottom and activity continues to pick up across the globe.  Additionally, we are seeing more compression occur between sizes for each variety as processing has added to the available supply, with exception still to the larger sizes.   

As we have all experienced firsthand, there have been sharp price increases all around us. Grocery prices continue to rise along with other most essential goods and services. Our growers are not insulated from these rising costs and shortages. We have seen raw material costs as well as fuel, fertilizers, chemicals, labor and of course water rising steadily. With the growing season right around the corner, pressure for some of these precious supplies will become a factor to properly support crop development. Supply of irrigation water still remains a major concern as well after the dry January.

Almond prices have fallen after the first of the year to levels similar to a year ago. The market continues to represent some of the lowest levels we have seen in years.

Upcoming Milestones:

Shipment Report: February 11, 2022
Valentine's Day: February 14, 2022
NASS Acreage Report: April 21, 2022
Subjective Estimate: May 11, 2022
Objective Estimate: July 6, 2022

Shop early and often!

Week 6 Update

Bullish Trends:

• The January shipment report will be out next week and may reflect significant improvement in uncommitted inventory due to new sales.
• With a dry January, the California drought may continue through this year. This will have a profound effect on availability of ground water and our reservoirs. This could lead to a smaller crop in the future, with further damage to under irrigated trees.
• As interest continues to grow in alternatives to dairy products, and the shortages for oats and other row crops have become critical, demand for almonds continues to increase.

Bearish Trends:

• January shipments do not promise to do anything for the industry.  Export issues are no better today than they have been for the last three months.   
• The larger carry-over destined for 2022 is the elephant in the room. There is no ignoring that a larger supply for 2022-2023 will be a great challenge for the industry.
• The bloom is right around the corner and we are expecting ideal weather conditions.

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