Almond Market Update - February 10, 2022

Wishing everyone a Happy Valentine's Day! 

California continues to have spring-like conditions with temperatures in the 70's up and down the state. January was on record as one of the driest months in history with no measurable rain or snow. We have now moved into February, seeing even warmer temperatures and the days growing longer. We went from 160% to normal snowpack at the end of December to only 70% to normal across the state as of today. A stark contrast in one month's time. If this weather persists on its present course, we will be reduced to only 40% to normal by April. Read more about February's snow course measurement here.

The Almond Board of California will release the January shipping report on February 11. This signifies the halfway point to the crop year. Last January, the industry shipped 194 million pounds (one of the weakest shipping months of the 2020/2021 crop year). The industry is expecting something in the area of +180 million pounds, as we continue to be restrained due to logistical setbacks at the ports with a lack of container space slowing export shipments.

By this time last year, the industry had already shipped over 1.477 billion pounds of almonds. With a decent January, we may reach 1.240 billion pounds, putting the industry behind last year's record shipments by -16%. However, it should be noted this is more in line with the previous 2019/2020 crop year shipments. We must wait to see the additional new crop sales and commitments, which will be an important piece laying out the path forward. 

Upcoming Milestones:

Shipment Report: February 11, 2022 
Valentine's Day: February 14, 2022
NASS Acreage Report: April 21, 2022
Subjective Estimate: May 11, 2022
Objective Estimate: July 6, 2022
 

Week 7 Update

Bullish Trends

• With lower pricing levels, we have seen increased activity pick up over the last few weeks. This trend should be evident in new sales for January.
• Water restrictions will loom for the growers, costs remaining high to grow, and will require an improved return for this crop.
• While other ingredients become more constricted in supply and rise in pricing, almonds remain in a great value and supply continues to grow. Almonds continue to be the number one nut snacking choice by consumers. 

Bearish Trends

• With our beautiful 70+ degree weather throughout the state, the buds are starting to turn to blooms quickly. It is ideal bloom weather and soon the bees will be out flying, doing their part.
• With this perfect bloom weather, expectations of an even larger crop for 2022 may be forecasted. March and April may bring the rain so desperately needed to California.
• We are seeing even the larger sized almond prices compressing now onto smaller sizes. The margins once enjoyed have started to erode for the time being.

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