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Almond Market Update - January 27, 2022

January has all but come and gone. This month will go on record as one of the driest January’s in recent history, with virtually no rain or snow for the month. With the Almond Bloom just around the corner, the extended forecast is calling for a dry beginning to February as well. We are seeing lows in the high 30’s and highs in the low 60’s in the afternoon. This will be ideal bloom weather if it holds. Having said that, the state needs more rain in the valley and snow in the Sierras. We would much rather see wet weather than perfect bloom weather.

We are beginning to see beehives delivered to some orchards, with early bloom starting in some areas within the next 10-14 days. Before you know it, the orchards will be white with blooms throughout the growing areas of the state.

January interest has continued to build following the position report released two weeks ago. Market sentiment has settled to levels where both buyers and sellers are willing to participate. Shipping woes continue due to the logistics nightmare we all face and are not showing any signs of improvement. This is leading to a new strategy for order replenishment with longer lead times (over 90 days!) required from orders being placed to being shipped. 

Overall, we are seeing activity in all major markets across all varieties and sizes, as prices have reached a season low. On the supply crop, receipts are expected to be between 2.85 and 2.95 billion pounds. As the port congestions and worldwide logistics hang-ups continue, the supply pressures may continue to mount on shippers and hence it is not inconceivable to expect a carry-over of more than 850 million pounds this year. 

Meanwhile demand remains strong and is only interrupted by the issues confronting the industry. All participants will continue to find ways to minimize the effect this has caused and work to keep the supply chain functioning.

 

Upcoming Milestones:

Shipment Report: February 11, 2022
NASS Acreage Report: April 21, 2022
Subjective Estimate: May 11, 2022
Objective Estimate: July 6, 2022
 

Week 5 Update

Bullish Trends:

  • Current market levels are reflective of some of the most aggressive pricing seen this season. As a result, monthly sales are likely to be strong for January forward.
  • With a now stable market, buyers feel confident to book their needs. Sellers are open to longer term contracts as well.
  • Innovation continues with plant-based products growing in popularity as consumers look for alternatives to animal-based proteins and look for healthier, more sustainable alternatives.

Bearish Trends:

  • January shipments may continue to fall behind in comparison to the last few years, on account of continued logistical constraints.
  • With lost consumption due to missed shipments and uncommitted inventories +26.7% ahead of last year, the industry may not be able to improve on this for the current crop year, compounding the carry-over into the next crop year.
  • With perfect weather in the forecast for the next several weeks, things are lining up for another large crop year for 2022.

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