Over the past few years, we have seen a steady increase in the crop supply, not only across major origins like South Africa, Australia, China and Kenya, but also some of the upcoming new plantation regions like Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The 2021 final crop number was reported at 241K MT (inshell), +10% YOY. Crop estimate for 2022 stands at 271K MT (NIS).
The 2022 Crop harvest has mostly concluded in all the regions. For South Africa, kernel recovery this year is reported to be better than the last two-year average, mainly due to favorable weather conditions and rainfall throughout the season across most of the producing regions. South Africa numbers are expected to be around 64K MT for the season which is 3K MT more than earlier forecasts.
It was a delayed start of the season for the Australians due to adverse weather conditions. The crop harvest is expected to complete by the end of September. Shipments out of Australia were delayed this season and the quality/yields have been below last year’s average. Australia crop looks to be on track with the projection mark of 49K MT (-10% YOY).
Kenya numbers are also expected to grow more than the forecast provided earlier this year (+4% at 41.5KMT) as the origin gears for their second season harvest in September. Typically, 25% of the crop is harvested in September and October from Kenya. China is also expected to go into harvest next month. China crop number is forecasted at 47K MT for 2022, however, the origin has historically struggled with poor farming practices and lower yields. As a result, the crop number has been stagnant for the last three years at around the 29K MT mark.
Many processors are long on the broken grades (S4 and below) and differential between wholes and brokens has increased in the season. Reduced price on broken styles has helped to trigger demand with increased macs inclusion in mixed nut SKUs. This should help to move the pending inventories in the festive season. The price gap between wholes and smaller styles continue to stay at a historic high. In terms of NIS market, we have seen China demand picking up for the festive season, partially fueled by historically low prices.