According to the Federal State Inspection Service, 3,199,815 farmer stock tons (all but 3,234 tons grading as seg 1) have been received and graded as of February 15, which slightly exceeds the total estimated production.
The latest USDA NASS Crop Production Report estimated production at 3,194,650 tons. Harvested acres were estimated at 1.545 million acres. They projected 4,450 pounds per acre in Georgia, which is still the third highest in history. Overall yield estimate is 4,135 pounds per acre (still the second highest national average on record).
Usage and demand is up 0.3% for this crop YTD (August-December) versus last year (up 1.6% from last month). Exports are continuing the downward trend at 28.43% down for this crop YTD (August-December). Estimated carryout for 2021 crop is up to 1.142 tons, with estimated total usage to be down 3.7% versus last crop year. Carryout could again increase if the current trends continue.
Commodity futures for Dec 2022 still remain strong with current prices for corn at $6.05, soybeans at $14.54, and cotton at $1.02. Strong commodity prices and higher input costs will play a part in planting decisions next year, as well as in the price that peanut farmer stock will demand.
Factors to Watch:
- Demand: both US and export.
- Competitive crop prices for calendar 2022.
- Crop input costs for calendar year 2022 (fertilizer, chemicals, etc).
- Impacts from COVID (concerns over new variant and how government mandates might impact the economy).