Nuts by ofi - Market Reports

The latest information, essential trends to watch for, and must-read insights about global markets for almonds, cashews, pistachios, walnuts, peanuts, macadamias and hazelnuts.

The latest updates on the global almond market, including bullish and bearish trends.

Currently, it is expected that this year's crop will be delayed due to the extended bloom period, combined with these persistently cooler temperatures. Depending on the region, this may push the harvest back by a week or two. The focus will be on the May shipment numbers, which will be released this week. Most people in the industry believe that these numbers will also be trending downwards since new sales for the months of March and April were both down. Consequently, it is expected that we will continue to see...

California almond orchards are well on their way through the growing season, with larger-sized almonds compared to the previous drought years. Following the April shipment report and the Subjective Estimate, the market has displayed a weakening trend, with a decline of approximately $0.09 per pound for various almond varieties and sizes. The cautious approach of California sellers due to...

Last week, the "April 2023" Position Report was released as well as the USDA Subjective Estimate! Total shipments for April were 197.26 million pounds, which was a stark difference from last year’s 245.24 million pounds, off -19.57%. This puts a halt to the industry’s streak of three months in a row of record shipments. With new sales for the month of April just under 115 million pounds, down 32% versus last year's 168 million pounds, the industry may be...

April shipments and the USDA Subjective Estimate will be reported next week.  So, it will be a busy week with more information available to help form a better opinion on how the industry will be marketing the current crop as well as the 2023/2024 crop. The industry has now shipped 1.798 billion pounds year-to-date, +6.85% ahead of last year at this time. The April shipment report and the new crop estimate will have a large influence on...

April shipments and the USDA Subjective Estimate will be reported next week.  So, it will be a busy week with more information available to help form a better opinion on how the industry will be marketing the current crop as well as the 2023/2024 crop. The industry has now shipped 1.798 billion pounds year-to-date, +6.85% ahead of last year at this time. The April shipment report and the new crop estimate will have a large influence on...

This week an opposing view from another company estimates 2.29 billion pounds based on 1,650 pounds per acre and 1.39 million bearing acres. Yesterday, LAND IQ in cooperation with the Almond Board of California, released their acreage report stating 1.366 million acres of bearing land. Additionally, the USDA delivered their acreage report estimating 1.38 million bearing acres. Each have their own methodologies for arriving at their numbers. If we use a crop yield of 1,650 pounds per acre we would be in the area of...

With no one really knowing what will come off the trees starting in August, more data points will continue to be shared as they develop. The market has been relatively quiet as price levels have risen (rightfully so) following last week's shipping report and the poor bloom weather. There is demand, but thus far matching up buyer’s expectations to seller’s expectations has been...

The Almond Board of California released the March Shipment Report this week. The industry shipped 281 million pounds in March, which was the largest single shipment month since October of 2020. It is also the third month in a row of record shipments. What other key points/essential insights did our almond market expert highlight from the newest shipment report? Click below!

With no solid indication or factual data to predict how the winter storms will have played a role in the 2023 crop, we will wait patiently for estimates to be established. Expect to hear more information in the weeks ahead. By the end of April, more indicators will be available and shared, certainly on May 12th as the first official estimate by NASS will be announced. It does not look like this will be a bounce back year for the crop, however. The current crop for 2022/2023 appears to be...

I believe the count is at “Lucky 13”.  Thirteen atmospheric rivers that is. California has received over 78 trillion gallons of rain-water over the last few months alone (as reported by the National Weather Service) and counting! The industry has now shipped 1.517 billion pounds, up +5.5% over last year at this time. According to the pundits, March is expected to be similar to February’s shipments. One cannot help but feel the industry has turned an important corner. If March proves to be similar, this would help...

As we stand now, with so much poor weather throughout the state and for long non-stop durations, no one knows at this time, to what degree, how the 2023 almond crop will be impacted. As a result, many growers remain off the market or selling at a reduced pace until further information can be assessed. Crop receipts have also come almost to a stand still. With less almonds harvested and the questionable supply for the new crop yet to be determined, the market levels have...

“It is Deja vu all over again”. The almond orchards have not had much of a break over the last six weeks as the bloom was really under attack from multiple storms that continued to roll through the valley. There's a great deal of doubt as to just what type of crop we will set in the days, weeks, and months ahead. As a result, the current market for almonds has firmed almost over night as growers...

California will be experiencing yet another Atmospheric River this week with flood warnings issued throughout the state. The Almond Board of California released the February position report yesterday, March 9, 2023. Shipments were above expectations with 245.7 million pounds up +23% over last year’s 199 million pounds making it the strongest shipment month of the crop year thus far. Why were many growers off the market in February? Find out below!

As reported last week, California was under yet another Atmospheric River that stretched throughout the state of California. There have been pictures circulating around of snow-covered beehives and orchards. Anecdotally, it has been a very cold bloom. The weather has taken center stage, with many growers retreating from the market. Great attention will be made on what effect this will have had on the 2023/24 crop, if any. As we now enter the growing phase, new crop outlook will...

The bloom has been off to a late start this year and this may most likely extend the bloom (effectively slowing down the progression). Temperatures have been down, and it has been windy - none of this bodes well for bee flight or pollination of the trees. As nonpareil and other popular almond varieties and sizes begin to become in tighter supply, prices continue to firm on these grades. Meanwhile, the pollinators remain at lower levels and the spread has widened once again. At this point, risk of waiting to purchase seems...

National Almond Day was on Thursday, February 16th as we welcome in the 2023 Almond Bloom. The bloom has just begun and so far conditions look good. The Almond Board of California released the January shipment report. It was a “true trifecta” as shipments for January was shipments for January was an all-time record for the month with 229.6 million pounds, up +29.6% over last years 177 million pounds. We also had the largest sales month historically with an impressive...

All is aligning for good bloom weather. The Almond Board of California released the January shipment report Thursday, February 9, 2023. This was a record shipment for any January previously at 229.6 million pounds, up +29.6% over last years 177 million pounds. With crop receipts slowing down dramatically having only received 98.5 million pounds for January, new crop sales were very impressive with 350 million pounds sold in January.

Each day we are moving closer to bloom, if you need a date for the start of the bloom let’s use February 8th. After a quick walk through the orchard, bud formation can be seen on the trees already. With the industry sitting at a little over 1.04 billion pounds shipped to date, we await next week’s position report with industry expectations greater than the 177 million pounds shipped last January. This should move the industry into a...

California continues to have a respite from the rain and snow experienced during holidays and through most of January. As January quickly comes to an end, we will start to look forward to the February bloom, which is right around the corner now! As the industry sits at a little over 1.04 billion pounds shipped to date in the current crop year, and just under -2% behind last year at this time, almonds are perhaps at the lowest values anyone has seen in recent history.

After yet another major storm this weekend, we finally have a break in the weather in California. Since Christmas day, we have had only three days in California with no rain in the valley. Total shipments for December were 206.35 million pounds, a pleasant surprise for the industry which had expectations of only 190 million pounds.  It is the 3rd largest December in history.

Storms continued to roll through all of California. The Almond Board released the December position report on January 12th - shipments for December were strong with 206.4 million pounds up 9.3% above last December. Domestic shipments remain trailing last year’s shipments -8.7% to date, while export shipments were a shining star with 153.9 million pounds shipped up 23.6%.

Happy New Year! As we welcome in 2023, out west we are getting pummeled with storm after storm.   It has caught many by surprise as we have received so much rain in Northern California that we experienced flooding in the North Valley with levy breaches shutting down a major freeway (Highway 99) for two days.

California continues to receive rain and snow which is great for all the western states. We have had storms pass through one after the other with more coming this week and next week. Could this be the winter we so badly need to bust the three-year drought?

With this being the first official week of winter, it sounds like it will be a doozy as the “Arctic Bomb” brings extreme low temperatures to the Midwest and upper eastern states affecting as many as 90 million people. They are saying that the temperature can drop by 30 degrees within minutes! We’ve seen cold temperatures this week, but no rain in sight until possibly next week...

The November shipping report was released on December 13 by the Almond Board of California. Only 493 million pounds were received for the month bringing the total year to date to 2.15 billion pounds, which is -7.00% behind total receipts of a year ago. The objective estimate of 2.60 billion pounds is still very much in focus...

California welcomed a storm over the weekend, including a significant amount of snow, with totals currently 175% to normal with a base of over 102” in some areas. Some light showers are expected over the next 24 hours on and off through-out the north region of the state. It is a good start, but so much more will be needed...

We saw minimal rain last week, as it vanished as quick as it appeared. The extended forecast shows nothing in the immediate future. We are expecting cooler temperatures for the next 10 days with lows down to 32 degrees in the morning and highs of 65 during the afternoons. Unfortunately, this has become more of the norm in the last few years than the exception...

We saw minimal rain last week, as it vanished as quick as it appeared. The extended forecast shows nothing in the immediate future. We are expecting cooler temperatures for the next 10 days with lows down to 32 degrees in the morning and highs of 65 during the afternoons. Unfortunately, this has become more of the norm in the last few years than the exception...

The California weather continued to exhibit more rainfall this week along with additional snowfall in the Sierras. While it has been a welcome sight, we need a dozen more storms just like this to combat the drought. We have received 3” of rainfall thus far, which remains below the 6” average for the month. Unfortunately, there is no rain forecasted for the next 10 days...

Winter officially arrived in California. A strong winter storm moved through the state and dropped over 6” of fresh snow in the Sierras and is expected to continue throughout next week. Another chance of rain is forecasted for the weekend and into next week, which has the potential to help the California water supply and the trees recover from the drought...

We saw temperatures drop to the low 40’s to high 60’s this week. While no measurable rain has come, we did see snow up in the high Sierra’s. Nevertheless, rain remains out of the forecast for the next 10 days. Growers have done as much post-harvest irrigation as their water supply will allow (a very important procedure due to stressed trees) and now with winter on the way, the health of the trees will be left up to mother nature. 

California weather continues to remind us we are very much experiencing drought-like conditions. We have enjoyed an extended summer this October as temperatures are hitting the low 90’s this week. However, a cooling trend with expected temperatures in the low 70’s is forecasted for next week...

The almond harvest is quickly coming to a close. Most growers have completed their harvests, except for those impacted by the rain event we experience three weeks ago. While we are on the subject of rain, the extended forecast shows nothing in our future. October is typically a dry month, despite last year’s two atmospheric rivers that came through...

The almond harvest continues this week as we get closer to some of the final varieties being picked up off the orchard floor and will soon be on their way to the huller/sheller’s for the first stages of processing, whereby field runs are converted into inshell or almond kernels...

The slowdown of the Ivory Coast crop continued during April. We are not seeing great arrivals in the second flush, which indicates that the Ivorian crop will likely end similar or close to last year’s crops. Demand for in-shell has been on and off, but still strong in respect of 
volumes. We are not seeing a significant increase of...

The focus of the industry remains covering spot and nearby shipments against their shorts to avoid pipeline disruptions. This strategy has resulted that Kernel prices start bouncing back up and in the last week, Kernal prices are up about 3%. With RCN prices high and shell realization at less than half what it was last year, we have noticed more and more processors have started closing their factories due to...

The Ivory Coast crop season has just started off with a two week delay on earlier timelines driven by a governmental decision. Today, the in-shell price is at disparity to kernel pricing, which we have also seen in the earlier two crops. Kernel demand continue to focus on spot and nearby shipments. Snacking consumption drop in the United States was significant during Q4 of 2022. On the other side, ingredients boomed and reached all time highs which...

Kernel demand is focused on spot and nearby shipments. With in-shell pricing yet to be discovered it’s not a big surprise to see limited forward offers as risk appetite across the industry is low due to so many unknown factors from cost of production to funding. The spot Kernel market is still trading at disparity vs new crop in-shell pricing, this phenomenon worked out last year due to better...

At a first glance it’s been a very challenging year for the cashew sector. Kernels traded for a consecutive year at disparity, with unclear forecasts from destination markets leading processors to sit on higher inventories (both in In-Shell and Kernels) and the continued global hassle on...

The cashew market is seeing a decrease in kernel demand and an increase in RCN demand. Currently, the most active kernel buyers are Middle East and India markets. Strong Indian domestic kernel demand has enabled Indian processors to pay up for West African inshells, and therefore contributing to an increased inshell pricing...

On Inshells: Northern Hemisphere, 2022 crops:
West Africa crops are starting to enter across the region. From a size perspective, crops look to be in line with last year, and in some regions slightly better. To determine the final quality, we will need to wait a few more months...

With the inshell crop season coming to an end in the Southern Hemisphere, we expect crop sizes to be +/- 5-10% larger versus last year in Tanzania, while Indonesia's new crop arrivals in November in look to be weak compared to last year. In the northern hemisphere, forecasted heavy rains may impact growing in Vietnam and Cambodia, while WAF and India can expect a similar growth year.  In regards to Kernels, prices are historically low, and the consumption and demand is signaling to pick-up again...

The CWB reported crop receipts for the 2022 crop year remains unchanged at 747,870 tons.  This number has historically been adjusted up by end June and we expect the final crop number to be closer to 760,000 tons. Adding in the record 2021 crop carry out, this would give us a total supply of ~895,000 tons for the 2022 crop year. This is a record total supply for the CA Walnut Industry and 8% larger...

Shipments in March continued the upward trend, while commitments in March are down 23% versus last year and new sales FTM were down 49% versus last March. Our carryout projection has been updated to 151,537 tons (11.3% higher vs last year). The USDA purchase should help ease some of the uncertainty surrounding the unsold combo product, which could spur sidelined buyers to...

Shipments in February performed closer to expectations (-2.1% versus last year), following an above average January that was 26% higher than last year. This brings the YTD shipments to 3.0% ahead of last year. However, given the larger total supply, the unshipped inventory currently stands ~12.7% higher than last year. Sale and shipments need to improve significantly in the coming months if we are...

2022 crop receipts stand at 747,870 tons as of the end of January and it is becoming increasingly clear this crop will finish in line with our previous forecast of 750,000 to 765,000 tons. Using an estimated final crop of 760,000 tons and adding in the record 2021 crop carry-out, this would give us a total supply of ~895,000 tons for the 2022 crop year. This represents an...

The California Walnut industry is fully aware of the task at hand and has had all hands-on deck trying to move this supply and bring the carry out inventories back in line with reasonable levels. It is clear that good quality product from CA 2022 crop is running thin and as a result, should firm in price. However, the growing global crops mentioned above continue to keep a ceiling on price levels. As a result, we expect...

The first shipment month of the 2022 crop season is officially under way. The California walnut industry is off to a decent start, with both shipments and commitments slightly higher than last year. Strong commitments are necessary, as the industry is focused on an improved start compared to last year...

The 2021 crop year finished strong with record shipments in August of 36,546 tons, beating the previous record for August by 11%. The strong shipments in August could be an effect of the lag experienced in July, due to protests at the port. Exports, the biggest driver, were up 52%. For reference, exports were down 23% in July. Preliminary 2021 crop carryout stands at 136,673 tons, pending an expected minor adjustment by the USDA in the coming months. The carryout matches our forecast provided last month...

April shipments were a significant improvement over the last six months, with shipments being up versus last year for the first time since September, and up double digits at 10.1%. This is certainly another step in the right direction as the industry continues to chip away at the carry out number, with our current carry out projection being around 125k tons. It is worth noting that 97.5% of the 2021 crop and 85.8% of total supply is already sold...

Shipments in March continued the upward trend seen previously in January and February (+33% versus last year), bringing the year-to-date shipments to 596,007,383 pounds (+8% versus last year). Export shipments year-to-date remain strong at 407,454,351 pounds (+16.2% versus last year), while domestic shipments year-to-date continue to lag at...

Inshell pricing continues to remain firm as remaining availability from 2022 crop is extremely limited. All eyes will soon point to 2023 crop potential, with the bloom period beginning in the coming weeks. Winter conditions in California were previously thought to favorable, with good chill hours and ample water supplies this year. However, recent flooding...

January shipments were up 30% versus last year at 70.1 million pounds versus 54 million in January 2021. Year-to-date shipments currently stand at 365 million pounds, up 2% versus last year’s shipments of 358 million pounds as of the end of January. Domestic shipments are down...

The Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP) released the December shipment report on January 15th. 2022 crop receipts have 
finalized at 884 million pounds. Given the favorable winter we are having in California, a larger 2023 Pistachio crop is expected. Expectations are also that Iran will set a larger crop in 2023 after experiencing two crop failures in a row. If 2023 crop expectations materialize, it is possible that pricing...

Quality of this year’s crop was poorer, with higher percentages of shelling stock. As a result, good quality Inshell has been harder to find out of CA. Now that the calendar has turned and we have entered into 2023, there is already industry talk of the potential for a much larger 2023 crop. Chill updates have been circulated, showing winter growing conditions have so far been nearly ideal. Bud set and growth also looks...

The 2022 crop harvest is all but over. The most recent Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP) inventory report shows the current crop receipts at 864 million pounds. An updated report will be released in the coming weeks and should reflect the final crop size, which is expected to be roughly 875 million pounds...

The final shipment report of the 2021 crop year was released by the ACP last week. The 2021 crop carryout stands at 354 million pounds, which is an increase in 70 million pounds (or 25%) compared to last year’s carry over of 284 million pounds. The carryout is down considerably from the originally anticipated 450+ million pounds earlier this year. However, it is important to note that some volumes have been shipped unsold overseas to destination markets...

The 2022 pistachio harvest began in California with the earliest fields a few weeks ago and is now in full swing. Record heat is forecasted for the Central Valley over the next couple of weeks, which will help to accelerate the harvest. At this point in time, industry sentiment varies widely on the size of the 2022 crop, from sub-1.0 billion pounds to high estimates of 1.2 billion pounds...

Our trusted and experienced Product Line Managers provide the most recent market updates and insights as to what lies ahead for almonds, cashews, pistachios, hazelnuts, macadamias, peanuts and walnuts...

Demand for inshells was sluggish during October. Driven by lower kernel activity, many smaller processors have shut down their production facilities, resulting from significant disparity between inshell and kernel prices, forcing processors to sell at a direct loss each of their kernel load...