Nuts by ofi - Market Reports

The latest information, essential trends to watch for, and must-read insights about global markets for almonds, cashews, pistachios, walnuts, peanuts, macadamias and hazelnuts.

The latest updates on the global almond market, including bullish and bearish trends.

First, our team here at ofi wishes everyone a Happy Holiday!

The almond harvest has officially concluded. With such a late crop, hullers/shellers will continue operating until Christmas. Late varieties have been hard to come by as the previous crop sold out early this year. Each day will improve as we move through crop receipts and work on processing as fast as possible. Crop receipts now stand at...

Through October, crop receipts are -19.5% behind this time last year, mainly due to the lateness of the crop, as just described. With 1.33 billion pounds received to date versus 1.66 billion pounds received at this time last year, only time will tell if the number improves, to bear out the USDA’s estimate of 2.6 billion. With that said, the Almond Board of CA released the "October Position Report" last Friday. While crop receipts are late...

It is the first week of November and harvest continues in many areas of the state. This week has been quiet as buyers and sellers continue to assess the market conditions. With the crop as late as it is processors are concerned about becoming oversold on...

September shipments were strong, with 217.7 million pounds shipped for the second month of the new crop year. This is an increase of 15.6% over last year and represents the third strongest September historically.  As a result, the new crop year is now ahead of last year by +3%. Expectations are for an even stronger October shipment number as we...

The Almond Board of CA released the "September Position Report" on Thursday, October 12, 2023, and we saw crop receipts seemingly explode overnight from the August position report of 70 million pounds to 625 million now received YTD. While still behind the 978 million received at this point last year, this trend will continue to build through the rest of the year and into the first quarter of 2024. As receipts continue to grow in October...

There was additional rainfall in some areas of the growing region last Saturday. This has further slowed down the harvest and complicated things for some growers, especially in areas where it rained particularly hard, beyond what was anticipated. With the next shipment report due out late next week, it is anticipated that crop receipts will remain significantly behind schedule...

With the crop so late this year, the industry is running into even cooler weather as harvest remains at a methodical pace.  I would not characterize it as a feverish pace as those cooler temperatures have slowed everything down including the drying stage once the nuts have been shaken from the trees. In addition to the late crop, there is ongoing talk of a smaller crop and higher levels of insect damage. These are two of several reasons why growers are...

The Almond Board of CA released the "August Position Report" on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. This represents the first report of the new crop year. Due to the lateness of this crop, crop receipts are well behind this time last year. For the month of August, only 70 million pounds were received, this is over 73% less than last year when 264 million pounds had been harvested and received by handlers at end of August. On a very positive note, despite the lack of support from growers for new crop offers (due to late crop and concern for crop yield and insect damage), new sales for August...

The market remains somewhat quiet, although there is business being done for nearby shipment periods. As we approach the "August Position Report" (which is the first report for the new crop year) due out next Tuesday, growers continue to assess their crops for yield and quality at the huller-sheller level. Expectations are for shipments to be north of 210 million pounds. It is hard to imagine any...

As we finish the month of August, the first month of the new crop year for almonds, expectations are for shipments to be north of 210 million pounds. For July, the industry ended strongly, with 187 million pounds shipped. Expectations are for this trend to continue. While the carry-out is less than last year's unprecedented 837 million pounds, 791.9 million pounds is...

Thank you to those who support the organic almond segment. Last year, ofi completed the last of our transitional orchards (we appreciate those who supported those purchases through the 3-year process), and now we have plenty of certified organics to provide you with, whether Nonpareil, Carmel Type, Mission type, and of course Cals.

The valley experienced a tropical storm as remnants of Hurricane Hilary passed through the state on Friday, August 18th, dropping anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain in the lower part of the state, interrupting the almond harvest. Some growers were unable to...

As a reminder to all our customers, for any of your organic almond needs, please reach out. We have many options and are happy to discuss any of your custom needs as well. 

Last week, as reported, the Almond Board of California released the final "Position Report" for the 2022/2023 crop year. For the month of July, the industry did end strongly, with 187 million pounds shipped. This is the second-largest July in history and should be noted as shipments start to trend up. With strong exports last month, we can expect to see ...

Hull split is prevalent throughout the state, and we are seeing the harvest begin in the lower southern part of the growing region, which is typical for this part of the harvest, albeit very late this year. The Almond Board of California released the final "Position Report" for the 2022/2023 crop year. Total shipments for the year were 2.565 billion pounds, down -2.63% from last year's 2.634 billion pounds.
Now that the final "Position Report" has been announced, this should...

Cashew prices remain favorable where WW320 pricing continues to be in the range of $2,40/lb FOB to $2,60+/lb FOB - depending on the period, quality, and quantities. This is being observed by retailers and brands as they intend...

Demand remains flat versus this time period last year. With all the global hassle on rising costs, this can be noted as a positive factor. Obviously, cashews remain a preferred consumer...

With the NH-crop season coming to an end, ability to cover high-quality in-shell is limited. Landings and pull-outs in Asia continue to be strong. This resulted in an upward shift of in-shell prices during the second half of July, which resulted...

The challenges noticed within the in-shell market can be explained by the lower demand in Kernels for the last 6-9 months. We have seen main destination markets acting with a flashlight system, meaning...

Demand for in-shells has taken a pause driven by lower demand on Kernels. Quality remaining from current NH crops has come off 
significantly as well. High out-turn in-shell still goes at a premium. The drop in demand and quality will lead to...

The slowdown of the Ivory Coast crop continued during April. We are not seeing great arrivals in the second flush, which indicates that the Ivorian crop will likely end similar or close to last year’s crops. Demand for in-shell has been on and off, but still strong in respect of 
volumes. We are not seeing a significant increase of...

The focus of the industry remains covering spot and nearby shipments against their shorts to avoid pipeline disruptions. This strategy has resulted that Kernel prices start bouncing back up and in the last week, Kernal prices are up about 3%. With RCN prices high and shell realization at less than half what it was last year, we have noticed more and more processors have started closing their factories due to...

The Ivory Coast crop season has just started off with a two week delay on earlier timelines driven by a governmental decision. Today, the in-shell price is at disparity to kernel pricing, which we have also seen in the earlier two crops. Kernel demand continue to focus on spot and nearby shipments. Snacking consumption drop in the United States was significant during Q4 of 2022. On the other side, ingredients boomed and reached all time highs which...

Kernel demand is focused on spot and nearby shipments. With in-shell pricing yet to be discovered it’s not a big surprise to see limited forward offers as risk appetite across the industry is low due to so many unknown factors from cost of production to funding. The spot Kernel market is still trading at disparity vs new crop in-shell pricing, this phenomenon worked out last year due to better...

At a first glance it’s been a very challenging year for the cashew sector. Kernels traded for a consecutive year at disparity, with unclear forecasts from destination markets leading processors to sit on higher inventories (both in In-Shell and Kernels) and the continued global hassle on...

The cashew market is seeing a decrease in kernel demand and an increase in RCN demand. Currently, the most active kernel buyers are Middle East and India markets. Strong Indian domestic kernel demand has enabled Indian processors to pay up for West African inshells, and therefore contributing to an increased inshell pricing...

On Inshells: Northern Hemisphere, 2022 crops:
West Africa crops are starting to enter across the region. From a size perspective, crops look to be in line with last year, and in some regions slightly better. To determine the final quality, we will need to wait a few more months...

With the inshell crop season coming to an end in the Southern Hemisphere, we expect crop sizes to be +/- 5-10% larger versus last year in Tanzania, while Indonesia's new crop arrivals in November in look to be weak compared to last year. In the northern hemisphere, forecasted heavy rains may impact growing in Vietnam and Cambodia, while WAF and India can expect a similar growth year.  In regards to Kernels, prices are historically low, and the consumption and demand is signaling to pick-up again...

The 2022/23 walnut season finishes strong, surpassing shipment expectations in August while maintaining firm pricing on available inventory. However, expectations are running high as the walnut industry braces for another record crop in the 2023/24 season, with the USDA's forecast standing at a significant 790,000 tons. Initial reports from growers point to a...

The walnut industry is maintaining its favorable trends seen in recent months, encompassing both pricing and shipments. The ramifications of the USDA purchase and the modified crackout rate have effectively reduced the total supply, prompting buyers to cover near term positions. Crop receipts for the 2022 crop year...

The positive momentum seen in May continued in June, driven by the impact of the USDA purchase, resulting in above-average shipments and a projected lower carryout. While crop receipts for the 2022 crop year remained unchanged at 747,870 tons, there is an expectation of a slight adjustment before the season's end, leading to...

The walnut market in May experienced significant developments, with potential implications for the overall supply and pricing. Reported commitments saw a considerable increase of 25% compared to last year, with new sales FTM rising by 13% compared to the same period last year. This growth is attributed to the positive influence of the USDA purchase and the lower crack out rate. The sold percentage of total supply is now estimated at...

The CWB reported crop receipts for the 2022 crop year remains unchanged at 747,870 tons.  This number has historically been adjusted up by end June and we expect the final crop number to be closer to 760,000 tons. Adding in the record 2021 crop carry out, this would give us a total supply of ~895,000 tons for the 2022 crop year. This is a record total supply for the CA Walnut Industry and 8% larger...

Shipments in March continued the upward trend, while commitments in March are down 23% versus last year and new sales FTM were down 49% versus last March. Our carryout projection has been updated to 151,537 tons (11.3% higher vs last year). The USDA purchase should help ease some of the uncertainty surrounding the unsold combo product, which could spur sidelined buyers to...

Shipments in February performed closer to expectations (-2.1% versus last year), following an above average January that was 26% higher than last year. This brings the YTD shipments to 3.0% ahead of last year. However, given the larger total supply, the unshipped inventory currently stands ~12.7% higher than last year. Sale and shipments need to improve significantly in the coming months if we are...

2022 crop receipts stand at 747,870 tons as of the end of January and it is becoming increasingly clear this crop will finish in line with our previous forecast of 750,000 to 765,000 tons. Using an estimated final crop of 760,000 tons and adding in the record 2021 crop carry-out, this would give us a total supply of ~895,000 tons for the 2022 crop year. This represents an...

The California Walnut industry is fully aware of the task at hand and has had all hands-on deck trying to move this supply and bring the carry out inventories back in line with reasonable levels. It is clear that good quality product from CA 2022 crop is running thin and as a result, should firm in price. However, the growing global crops mentioned above continue to keep a ceiling on price levels. As a result, we expect...

The first shipment month of the 2022 crop season is officially under way. The California walnut industry is off to a decent start, with both shipments and commitments slightly higher than last year. Strong commitments are necessary, as the industry is focused on an improved start compared to last year...

The 2021 crop year finished strong with record shipments in August of 36,546 tons, beating the previous record for August by 11%. The strong shipments in August could be an effect of the lag experienced in July, due to protests at the port. Exports, the biggest driver, were up 52%. For reference, exports were down 23% in July. Preliminary 2021 crop carryout stands at 136,673 tons, pending an expected minor adjustment by the USDA in the coming months. The carryout matches our forecast provided last month...

April shipments were a significant improvement over the last six months, with shipments being up versus last year for the first time since September, and up double digits at 10.1%. This is certainly another step in the right direction as the industry continues to chip away at the carry out number, with our current carry out projection being around 125k tons. It is worth noting that 97.5% of the 2021 crop and 85.8% of total supply is already sold...

The 2022/23 pistachio season concluded with positive shipments into emerging markets signaling a positive increase in consumer preferences for pistachios. Expectations for the 2023/24 crop year indicate a substantial increase to global pistachio production, mainly driven by...

The pistachio industry is maintaining its positive trajectory witnessed in recent months, with positive performances in both domestic shipments and exports. While current crop inventory retains its firm pricing, intriguing supply and demand dynamics are on the horizon as global production is expected to reach...

Current crop pricing remains firm as dwindling supply of the current crop has led to higher prices for buyers needing immediate coverage. However, early reports of new crop business are coming in much lower. The US crop is expected to be delayed about two weeks currently due to...

Global Pistachio Production is forecasted to increase significantly in the 2023/2024 crop year, driven mainly by larger crops in both the USA and Iran. At the INC in May, 2023 crop global production was forecasted to grow from 747k MTs last year to 1.022 mn MTs this upcoming crop year, an increase of...

The ACP reported crop receipts for the 2022 crop year remain unchanged at 884,139,540 pounds. The INC projects the incoming 2023 global crop to be 2.25 billion pounds, representing an increase of about 37% compared to the current crop year. The US crop is projected to reach...

Shipments in March continued the upward trend seen previously in January and February (+33% versus last year), bringing the year-to-date shipments to 596,007,383 pounds (+8% versus last year). Export shipments year-to-date remain strong at 407,454,351 pounds (+16.2% versus last year), while domestic shipments year-to-date continue to lag at...

Inshell pricing continues to remain firm as remaining availability from 2022 crop is extremely limited. All eyes will soon point to 2023 crop potential, with the bloom period beginning in the coming weeks. Winter conditions in California were previously thought to favorable, with good chill hours and ample water supplies this year. However, recent flooding...

January shipments were up 30% versus last year at 70.1 million pounds versus 54 million in January 2021. Year-to-date shipments currently stand at 365 million pounds, up 2% versus last year’s shipments of 358 million pounds as of the end of January. Domestic shipments are down...

The Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP) released the December shipment report on January 15th. 2022 crop receipts have 
finalized at 884 million pounds. Given the favorable winter we are having in California, a larger 2023 Pistachio crop is expected. Expectations are also that Iran will set a larger crop in 2023 after experiencing two crop failures in a row. If 2023 crop expectations materialize, it is possible that pricing...

Quality of this year’s crop was poorer, with higher percentages of shelling stock. As a result, good quality Inshell has been harder to find out of CA. Now that the calendar has turned and we have entered into 2023, there is already industry talk of the potential for a much larger 2023 crop. Chill updates have been circulated, showing winter growing conditions have so far been nearly ideal. Bud set and growth also looks...

The 2022 crop harvest is all but over. The most recent Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP) inventory report shows the current crop receipts at 864 million pounds. An updated report will be released in the coming weeks and should reflect the final crop size, which is expected to be roughly 875 million pounds...

The final shipment report of the 2021 crop year was released by the ACP last week. The 2021 crop carryout stands at 354 million pounds, which is an increase in 70 million pounds (or 25%) compared to last year’s carry over of 284 million pounds. The carryout is down considerably from the originally anticipated 450+ million pounds earlier this year. However, it is important to note that some volumes have been shipped unsold overseas to destination markets...

The 2022 pistachio harvest began in California with the earliest fields a few weeks ago and is now in full swing. Record heat is forecasted for the Central Valley over the next couple of weeks, which will help to accelerate the harvest. At this point in time, industry sentiment varies widely on the size of the 2022 crop, from sub-1.0 billion pounds to high estimates of 1.2 billion pounds...

Our trusted and experienced Product Line Managers provide the most recent market updates and insights as to what lies ahead for almonds, cashews, pistachios, hazelnuts, macadamias, peanuts and walnuts...

Demand for inshells was sluggish during October. Driven by lower kernel activity, many smaller processors have shut down their production facilities, resulting from significant disparity between inshell and kernel prices, forcing processors to sell at a direct loss each of their kernel load...