Supply of RCN from West Africa continues as expected with a total of 1.85mn MT exports by the end of September. Post-evacuation of the 2018 crop to port, Tanzania’s government has gone back to earlier system of auctions for the 2019 crop. With Tanzania’s 2019 crop expected to be normal and Mozambique crop also expected to be good, RCN supply will continue to support processing. RCN prices have been stable at $1,250 USD/MT for IVC/46 and Tanzania’s new crop is expected to trade between $1,600 - $1,650 USD/MT for 52 KoR. Overall kernel demand remains subdued, keeping the prices bearish. However, with upcoming Chinese New Year, demand is expected to pick up and we expect the kernel market to be range bound between $3.30 - $3.60 USD/lb. for W320s.
Sales and shipments in October have been extremely strong and exceeded industry expectations. The industry still doesn’t have any better visibility on the crop size and current trading seems to be based off an estimate ranging from 2.4 to 2.45 billion lbs. Overall California is in a well sold position and prices continue to firm up, resulting in buyers wanting to continue to layer on additional business. A weakening in price levels is likely to occur only if crop receipts accelerate tremendously in the coming weeks or if there is an excellent bloom and bloom conditions in February. Differentials between Nonpareil and Pollinizers remain compressed and given the growth in the ingredient segment this is likely to be the new normal.
With 2019 harvest coming to an end, sales and shipments for the new crop have started. New crop opening prices were much higher than last year, indicating strong pistachio demand. Higher supply from Iran may affect pricing in selected markets. Overall new crop quality has been good with low percentages of insect damage and much less small sized kernels. Current prices for the new crop are at $4.35 - $4.45/lb. FAS for Raw 21-25 Extra No.1, which are almost 10 cents higher than the opening prices.
Prices for walnuts continue to hold, with inshell Chandler at $1.42 - $1.45 USD/lb. FAS. The 2019 crop is believed to be lighter and initial feedback on arrivals is of lower sizes and lower meat yield as well. However, color has been good with lesser defects. Prices are expected to remain firm with less spot availability.
With low inventory levels at markets, demand has been good and good shipments have been observed in September and October from Turkey. Overall the average yield remains good though with higher percentage of smaller sizes; Turkey’s 2019-20 crop is expected to reach 800,000 MT. The market is expected to lead to stable to firm prices by year end. After December the prices might ease further. Current market prices are $6.60 - $6.80 USD/Kg for natural and $8.60 - $9.00 USD/Kg for blanched kernels.
With over 95% of the 2019 crop being harvested in Australia and South Africa and very limited uncommitted volumes, prices have been firm and are expected to remain so for next 2-3 months as new harvest comes in. Initial surveys have indicated good flowering and the industry expects a good crop next year as well. Demand continues to outpace supply, keeping prices firm. Current price levels are at $11.30 - $11.50 USD/lbs. for S0 and $8.60 - $9.00 USD/lbs. for S4.