With supply of RCN from West Africa coming to an end, Tanzania’s new crop flow started well as expected and government resorted to the earlier system of auctioning. The trading price is at $1,700 - $1,750 USD/MT, around $100 USD/MT higher than expectation and is keeping the markets firm. Mozambique’s new crop also is as expected and trading between $1,350 - $1,400 USD/MT levels. With WAF season starting in one month and a huge quantity of RCN expected to come, prices of RCN may soften a bit. Kernel prices are expected to firm up a bit as well, as buyers cover their demands for Q2 next year.
Estimates on the 2019 almond crop size continue to range between 2.40 and 2.45 billion lbs., thereby bringing stability to the market. Market remains compressed with differentials between varieties, grades and sizes being at historical lows. November shipments into India were strong, hence inshell demand is likely to be low in the coming weeks. While domestic shipments are trailing, 3.80% lower than last year, export markets have shown good growth and are 8% up over last year. With buyers having covered for the holiday season it is likely that not much additional trading will occur until markets reopen in January. Overall demand and supply continue to remain in balance, and we don’t expect any major swings until bloom. Current prices are $2.25 USD/lb. for NP inshells 70% and $3.30 - $3.35 USD/lb. for NPX 23/25.
New crop prices remain firm mainly due to demand across South East Asia and China, covering for Chinese New Year. Even with lower output from the USA, the overall crop is expected to remain similar to last year. The political situation is keeping Iran’s supply at bay and further keeping the prices firm. As Tet demand is covered, prices are expected to soften by 3-5% after January and then stabilize for the next few months. Current prices are $4.30 - $4.40 USD/lb. for US Extra No 1 inshells.
The market has remained firm for walnuts, similar to last month. The Chilean crop is completely sold out with no carryover inventory. The USA crop has lower yields as expected, and traders are expected to hold off on sales. Prices for walnuts continue to hold with inshell Chandler at $1.420 - $1.450 USD/lb. FAS and are expected to remain firm at these levels.
Trade continues to be good as expected, with consistent demand as well as shipments from origins to markets. Both Turkey and Georgia have reported good crops and supply has been good. Overall inventory levels remain low at markets and this is leading to stable to firm prices. Current market prices are $6.60 - $6.80 USD/Kg. for natural and $8.60 - $9.00 USD/Kg. for blanched kernels.
The macadamia market continues to be firm, especially with coverage from Chinese buyers for New Year festivals. New plantations in Australia are being finishing harvest at a steady pace and keeping the crop constant which has been adversely affected due to drought and weather conditions. China’s crop yielded a higher volume with lower yields, as expected. With new harvest of major origins expected to start in February, major buying contract negotiations are expected to conclude between December and January and prices are expected to remain firm between $5.50 - $6.60 USD/Kg. for inshells.