RCN supply from West Africa continues to be normal and 1.6 million MT raw material supply is expected to flow by end of August. Tanzania’s situation looks likely to resolve in the next few weeks and supply will keep the prices stable. For the last month RCN prices have been stable at 1,100 USD/MT (for IVC 45 KoR)..
With stable lower prices of RCN, exports of processed cashew kernel from Vietnam have been highest for the January-Ju-ly period and may pass 24,000 FCLs for the full year. This reflects good demand for cashew amongst all nuts and should keep the markets stable. For the last month, the prices have been 3.35-3.45 USD/lbs. (for W320 FoB) and industry expec-tation is that prices will remain range bound for next 2-3 months at 3.30-3.60 USD/lbs.
With the announcement of the Objective Estimate for the 2019 crop being lower than expected, prices spiked for a short while before settling down at the end of July. The Objective Estimate puts the California crop at 2.2 billion lbs., while it appears that the market is trading basis a range of 2.4 to 2.5 billion lbs.
Demand across markets remains subdued and the major focus has shifted to the new crop. With uncertainty over crop size, buyers are expected to cover for a only short period while lower inventory levels will keep sellers comfortable and not rushing to sell. Industry expectation is that prices will remain weak to stable and range bound between 3.25-3.45 USD/lbs. (NPX 23/25).
Market is abuzz with expectations of a big crop in Iran and the largest ever off-season crop in California. The estimate is around 2 million lbs. of combined crop in 2019, keeping prices subdued. In the last month, prices have come down by 15-20 cents and are at 4.20-4.25 USD/lbs. (Inshell 21/26, Extra # 1). The new crop is expected to open below 4.00 USD/lbs.
The US crop size is expected to be around 700k MT, versus 672k last year. Carryover inventories are lower in origin and destinations, and net combined supply from California and Chile could be lower by 20k MT.
Inshell prices have seen an increase in prices from 1.15 USD/lbs. to 1.25-1.30 USD/lbs. LH 20 prices are around 3.00 USD/lbs. The Objective Estimate is expected on August 31st, and trade for the new season should begin earnestly upon re-lease.
The new crop in Turkey is estimated to be around 800k MT with no major change in supply. Rains have been good and there might be higher percentage of smaller nuts this year. The inventory levels are low both at origin as well as at mar-kets and this is expected to lead to higher prices before the festival period at the end of the year. Post-December the prices might ease further. Current market prices are 6.50-7.00 USD/Kg for natural and 8.50-9.50 USD/Kg for blanched kernels.