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Cashew Market Update - November 17, 2020

We experienced another quiet month with low volumes traded on cashew kernels. Again, despite the lack of large-scale buying interest, prices continue to remain firm.

Tanzanian auctions continued and we have not seen any big price moves from Tanzania. Surprisingly, the price of Tanzanian inshells has remained firm and flat through the six weeks of auctions. It is worth noting here that Tanzanian auction prices correspond to a much higher kernel price break-even for shellers (about 10% higher than current offers from small processors). Despite the high inshell prices, more than 120,000 tons were traded so far at almost similar levels.

The other interesting news has been around rains. We know that Southeast Asia and South American countries are experiencing La Niña weather. This will mean above-normal precipitation in these regions. We have heard some unconfirmed news of Brazilian crop delays due to excess rains. It could be the weather patterns that are motivating inshell buyers to buy Tanzanian inshells even if they are at disparity to current kernel prices.

In India, we have heard of lower than expected demand for Diwali. Markets still have a couple of big upcoming events: Christmas and New Year consumption and Chinese New Year demand. These events will determine the carry forward inventory at destinations.

Possible Scenarios

Bullish

  • Kernel prices are firm despite lower demand / active buying interest
  • Limited availability of good quality inshells at a reasonable price
  • Firm Tanzania inshell price
  • La Niña and its impact on Brazilian and Vietnamese crop

Bearish

  • COVID-19 related spikes / lockdowns and their impact on business
  • Comfortable inventory position in spot markets in EU and US
  • Poor Indian festival demand
  • Overall, there is no shortage of inshells

Please take care and stay safe and healthy

If you have any comments or suggestions, please write to me at ganesh@olamnet.com or message me on LinkedIn.

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