Cashew Market Update - June 18, 2020
Cashew markets are currently marked by a lack of any significant activity. Shellers in Vietnam are worried about a price fall and they are closing their factories, which is resulting in lower availability. At the same time, they are also reducing their inshell purchases.
The inshell season is ending and flows are mainly restricted to poor quality inshells at a high relative cost. There is no real urgency for inshell origins to drop prices.
Asian demand continues to be poor. The EU and US have enough stocks on the ground; hence we may not see any real spot activity soon.
Kernel off-grades remain very illiquid and this is placing an undue cost burden on the main grades. It will be tough for main grade prices to drop significantly unless off-grade prices and liquidity improves.
Something must give in: inshells must go down to make processing viable, or kernel prices must go up.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish
- Inshell season is coming to an end, flows are poor, and prices are stable
- Good pickup in retail consumption in May across the US
- Many small and medium shellers closing operations due to lack of viability
- There is significant resistance against allowing a sharp drop in inshell prices (which will affect millions of poor farmers)
Bearish
- Asian demand continues to be poor
- There are excess shipments and inventory at destination.
Please take care and stay safe and healthy
If you have any comments or suggestions, please write to me at ganesh@olamnet.com or message me on LinkedIn.
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