Cashew Market Update - July 16, 2020
Cashew inshell prices have been rangebound over the last few weeks and it appears that a bottom has been reached. We have also seen participants who were holding inshell inventories start to liquidate some of their positions. We expect the trades in inshells to reduce significantly in July as West Africa and Vietnam harvest comes to an end.
The cashew market has been relatively quiet over the last few weeks. Despite the silence we are aware of several business deals concluded by end users for delivery well into 2021. This business may or may not have translated into buying activity at origins, as origin shippers are reluctant to commit to inshell purchases due to lack of liquidity.
Studying historic trends in prices we see that cashew kernels are trading at multi year lows, with main grades at 10 to 12-year lows and off grades at their lowest prices since we started recording them.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish
- Inshell season coming to an end, flows are poor, and prices are stable
- Demand/consumption is healthy in US
- Many small and medium shellers closing operations due to lack of viability
Bearish
- COVID second wave and its impact
- Asian demand continues to be poor, Indian festival demand could be impacted severely
- Excess shipments and inventory at destination.
Please take care and stay safe and healthy
If you have any comments or suggestions, please write to me at ganesh@olamnet.com or message me on LinkedIn.
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