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Cashew Market Update - December 14, 2020

The cashew market continues to trade sideways in line with the trends in the last couple of months. In Vietnam shippers are facing shortages of containers to ship their cargo and buyers who bought FOB contracts are facing shipping challenges. This has resulted in some contract delays and postponements at origins. Shippers who are faced with delays have decided to sell on the spot for cash. We have seen a slight increase in spot offers in the last few days. 

This situation is resulting in shorts being rolled over to forward month when (reasonably priced) inshell supply and processing will remain constrained.

On the inshell side: we have Tanzanian auctions continuing at similar levels as previous auctions and so far, around 170,000 tons have been auctioned. Price levels have not changed significantly through the auctions.

We continue to see reasonable increases in spot purchases in the US. This could be due to some sectors opening or sectors that have not covered their requirements earlier due to uncertainty related to COVID-19. This could also be due to severe disruption in shipments around the world, which is also affecting the US imports.

Some triggers that may change the direction of the market are highlighted below.

Possible Market Triggers

Bullish

  • Lack of processing parity - it is unviable to process cashews given the high price of inshells and low kernel prices, especially beyond W320 and W240.
  • Holiday season demand – if it does happen!
  • Shipping line issues are causing delays in receipt of cashews from origins in the peak holiday season
  • La Niña and its impact on Brazilian and Vietnamese crops

Bearish

  • COVID-19 related spikes/lockdowns and their impact on businesses
  • Indian festival demand has not been great, will this be the trend globally for the holiday season?

Please take care and stay safe and healthy

If you have any comments or suggestions, please write to me at ganesh@olamnet.com or message me on LinkedIn.

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