Almond Market Update - September 29, 2022

By: Richard Andonian

After a five- or six-day delay in harvest due to the rain events that moved through California last week, harvest is now back in full swing. Crop receipts have been slow to arrive as huller/shellers appear to be backed up. October will be action packed as a result. Weather has been favorable following the heatwave, then followed by rain, where things appear to be more normal in terms of daily temperatures in the high 80’s to low 90’s. 

With the September shipping report almost two weeks away, the industry has remained relatively quiet. As the industry got off to a good start in August with 228 million pounds shipped, it will be critical to follow up with another strong month. Anything short of 200 million pounds for September may tip the scales back in the other direction as this would result in entering the fourth quarter behind in shipments versus a year ago.

With the British Pound and the Euro rallying this week against the US Dollar, this could result in a more favorable position for these markets to begin purchasing. `

• Position Report: October 11, 2022
• Position Report: November 11, 2022
• Almond Board Conference: December 5 through December 8, 2022

Bullish Trends

1. The almond market remains at historically low levels and is considered unsustainable by many in the industry. This should result in strong sales trends in the weeks ahead.
2. Local stocks are being depleted and holiday sales are starting to ramp up. As we often hear our customers say, “It’s that time of the year...”
3. As the harvest is coming in, the estimate of 2.6 billion pounds seems more optimistic than ever.

Bearish Trends

1. The industry can ill-afford September shipments to trend behind entering the fourth quarter, which are typically the strongest shipping months of the year.
2. Snack nut demand remains in question as inflation takes hold and consumers stretch their dollars to make ends meet.  Uncertainty in the market remains.
3. Regardless of new crop receipts trending down, there is an 836-million-pound carryout that will more than make up for a shortfall in this year’s crop.

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