Almond Market Update - October 6, 2022

By: Richard Andonian

The almond harvest continues this week as we get closer to some of the final varieties being picked up off the orchard floor and will soon be on their way to the Huller/Sheller’s for the first stages of processing, whereby field runs are converted into inshell or almond kernels. California weather is very typical for this time of the year with highs in the 90’s and lows in the 50’s. Next week, we can expect the fall temperatures which are always welcome by Californians.

As we’ve seen for weeks, the almond market remains subdued. While some business is being done, one cannot help but think of the global economies and concerns that impact us all. There is limited interest from both the seller and the buyer side. Growers are willing to hold off on aggressively selling as the crop is coming in below expectations, understanding they cannot sell something they may not have. Buyers, despite incredible values, are also willing to wait for what may be an even greater value to come. It is indeed a waiting game.

The domestic market, which one would imagine is not all that much different than Europe, remains weak. Demand at the consumer level has been down in the snacking aisle as consumers tighten their budgets. Unfortunately, the retail shelves do not reflect yesterday’s costs for almonds or today’s costs for that matter.  As a result, high shelf prices have slowed movement at this time. Hopefully holiday promotions will bring the consumer back to the aisle once again.

Despite foreign currency exchange rates moving in favor of Europe and other major export markets, the interest has not changed. This specifically speaks to the demand side of the equation.  Until supplies become tight, we will continue to see this waiting period persist. We can expect further information and updates with the next shipment report due next week.

• Position Report: October 11, 2022
• Position Report: November 11, 2022
• Almond Board Conference: December 5 through December 8, 2022

Bullish Trends

1. With current market levels already at historic lows, what more could a buyer want? Waiting too long may put specific sizes in jeopardy as the crop continues to harvest with smaller kernel sizes like last year.

2. With shipping constraints and production lead times being what they are, early planning is essential to assure on-time delivery during the holiday season.

3. Sentiment for the crop size remains between 2.5 to 2.7 billion pounds; well below the last two crop years of 2.92 and 3.1 billion pounds helping to bring supply in line with demand.

Bearish Trends

1. September shipments will be closely scrutinized along with September new sales and how this impacts uncommitted inventory.
2. Market uncertainty is creating a hesitancy to buy. Once the buying frenzy does start, this may push the market down further as packers compete for the sales.
3. Shipping woes continue regardless of planning ahead. If goods cannot reach destinations on time, missed opportunities along with consumption may persist for some time to come.

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