Almond Market Update - October 27, 2022

By: Richard Andonian

We saw temperatures drop to the low 40’s to high 60’s this week. While no measurable rain has come, we did see snow up in the high Sierra’s. Nevertheless, rain remains out of the forecast for the next 10 days. Growers have done as much post-harvest irrigation as their water supply will allow (a very important procedure due to stressed trees) and now with winter on the way, the health of the trees will be left up to mother nature.

Two weeks have passed since the position report was released by the Almond Board and the market remains passive. One cannot help but feel the pent-up demand, however, with the market uncertainties, each passing day adds pressure as time works against the industry. As a result, we continue to see weakening on specific sizes and grades.

While other goods and services announce massive price increases, almonds remain at levels only one could describe as historic values in comparison. Even in the face of an extreme drought, shrinking supply, and increased costs to grow, almonds remain a remarkable value.

• Position Report: November 11, 2022
• Almond Board of California Annual Conference: December 5 through December 8, 2022
• Position Report: December 13, 2022

Bullish Trends:

1. While we are at historically low market levels today, it is only a matter of time before we see the market bounce as consumption comes back and sales resume back to the norm.
2. The writing is on the wall: low prices, shrinking supply, and an extreme drought, it’s the triple witching hour. BOO! Happy Halloween!
3. Plant-based products remain on an upward trend becoming more in demand each day as consumers look for healthier alternatives.

Bearish Trends

1. Export shipments continue to be a challenge for the industry.  
2. As winter begins to take hold in the EU, concerns over rising energy costs escalate. This has become a major factor to be contended with as it relates to food production. 
3. Inventories remain at destinations, slowing down the demand for new stock purchases.

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