Almond Market Update - November 3, 2022

By: Richard Andonian

Winter officially arrived in California. A strong winter storm moved through the state and dropped over 6” of fresh snow in the Sierras and is expected to continue throughout next week. Another chance of rain is forecasted for the weekend and into next week, which has the potential to help the California water supply and the trees recover from the drought.

November has come upon us, and we are seeing an increase in enquires and demand. Both short-term demand as well as contracting for the crop year are in hand. Given the 836-million-pound carry-out and potentially the third largest crop ever harvested currently forecasted for 2.6 billion pounds, it is expected that the market will remain relatively stable throughout this crop year. The one caveat to this will be specific sizes and varieties that will remain under pressure. Smaller sizes were harvested again as a result of the growing conditions, mainly drought-related irrigations issues.

The October position report will be released at the end of next week and will lend additional data points for crop receipts, new crop sales and of course what was shipped for the month. The outlook is approximately 200 million pounds shipped for October, a modest improvement over September, yet still lagging compared to last year’s shipments.  

• Position Report: November 11, 2022
• Almond Board of California Annual Conference: December 5 through December 8, 2022
• Position Report: December 13, 2022

Bullish Trends:

1. Interest is increasing as buyers recognize the value almonds represent at current levels, and pricing has become more defined.
2. Less inshells were produced this year, which helps firm pricing on the Nonpareil variety for the rest of this crop year.
3. With the positive sentiments throughout the market, we are seeing less willingness to lower pricing especially for further out demand.

Bearish Trends

1. The Port of Oakland was shut down on November 2nd due to union protests. During an already short month due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the shutdown will not help with November shipments.

    

2. The US Dollar remains stronger than ever weakening other currency purchasing power in those all-important destination export markets. 

    

3. Other market concerns remain as well including increased energy costs, and basic food supply shortages in many parts of the EU as the Russia and Ukrainian war continue.

Interested in purchasing quality and sustainable almonds in bulk?  Create an account today to access high-quality products, view live pricing and availability, and request free samples!