Almond Market Update - November 22, 2022

By: Richard Andonian

We saw minimal rain last week, as it vanished as quick as it appeared. The extended forecast shows nothing in the immediate future. We are expecting cooler temperatures for the next 10 days with lows down to 32 degrees in the morning and highs of 65 during the afternoons. Unfortunately, this has become more of the norm in the last few years than the exception. Chilling hours are important for the health of the orchards so, in that regard, we may be off to a good start.  

The October position report was released by the Almond Board on November 11. Crop receipts now stand at 1.657 billion pounds, trailing behind last year’s receipts by 7.65% and is constant with the objective estimate of 2.60 billion pounds. Last year the industry harvested 2.92 billion pounds; production will be off this year. Nonpareil will be down the greatest at roughly 12.5% versus a year ago, while we see the popularity of the Independence variety continue to grow again this year, up 6.9% to last year.

Shipments for the month were 215 million pounds, which was a pleasant surprise to the industry expectations of 200 million pounds and just 1% off from last year. Export shipments were better this month than last month at 149 million pounds versus last month’s 137 million pounds, domestic shipments were also better than last month’s with 65.6 million pounds versus last month’s 52 million pounds. All in all, the industry stands now with 631.3 million pounds shipped, just 3.19% behind last year at this time, with plenty of time in the new year to improve.

• Almond Board of California Annual Conference: December 5 through December 8, 2022
• Position Report: December 13, 2022
• Position Report: January 12, 2023

Bullish Trends:

1. Strong sales during Diwali in India should lead to sustained demand, as the market looks to replenish inventories.
2. China also demonstrated stronger demand in preparation for the Chinese New Year, with October shipments reaching a high of 25.5 million pounds, the best we’ve seen this year.
3. With record-low prices for almonds, buyer confidence should be high, in addition to strengthened consumer confidence.

Bearish Trends

1. Prices will remain suppressed for much of the year; until the old crop has been worked through the various markets, the buyers remain with all the leverage.
2. While shipments and sales may have exceeded market expectations, the fact remains industry sales of 38% against total supply is well behind the 47% they should be for this time of year, based on the last five-year average.
3. Global inflation and exchange rates continue to impact the industry, as well as the fear of a global recession lingering in everyone’s purchasing decisions.

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