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Almond Market Update - November 14, 2022

The California weather continued to exhibit more rainfall this week along with additional snowfall in the Sierras. While it was welcome sight, we need a dozen more storms just like this to combat the drought. We have received 3” of rainfall thus far, which remains below the 6” average for the month. Unfortunately, there is no rain forecasted for the next 10 days.   

The October position report was released by the Almond Board on Friday, November 11. Crop receipts are now at 1.657 billion pounds, this is -7.65% behind this same time a year ago and is in line with the objective estimate of 2.60 billion pounds, give or take. Last year, the industry harvested 2.92 billion pounds; production will be off this year.

Shipments for the month were 214.6 million pounds and just -1.1% behind a year ago. This was above industry expectations of 200 million pounds and will help to stabilize the market. While export shipments were slightly off by -1.9% versus a year ago at 149 million pounds versus last year’s 151.9 million pounds, domestic shipments were slightly up at 65.6 million pounds versus last year’s 65.2 million pounds. All in all, the industry stands now with 631.3 million pounds shipped, just -3.19% behind last year at this time.

Upcoming Industry Milestones

  • Almond Board of California Annual Conference: December 5 through December 8, 2022
  • Position Report: December 13, 2022

Almond Insight - Week 46

Bullish Trends:

  1. New sales for the month were 243 million pounds, almost even with last year’s 244 million pounds. Interestingly, export commitments were up +34% versus a year ago as buyers like the current market levels and take full advantage, despite exchange rates.
  2. With the current market levels buyers have reacted, the industry has now improved its position and any further weakening is unlikely as stocks start to diminish.
  3. With the positive sentiment now, market levels should remain flat to slowly start to firm in the months ahead. This will lead to increased buyer confidence.

Bearish Trends

  1. Port issues remain and will continue to be a drag on export shipments keeping a ceiling on what the industry can export.
  2. Commitments remain behind -7.10% versus this time last year. With arguably more almonds to sell this year than last year due to the 836-million-pound carry-out; it is a blessing that the crop is smaller this season.
  3. With 2021/22 crop stocks still remaining in inventories throughout the various markets, this will continue to keep any strengthening in check for some time to come.

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