Almond Market Update - May 5, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

Following what was a hint of summer weather over the prior weekend, as forecasted the Central Valley and Northern region of the state received rain this week. Temperatures dropped into the high 40’s and 50’s with light rain coming through the area on Tuesday and staying through Thursday.

The industry now waits for the USDA Subjective Estimate to be released at the end of next week. Industry pundits put the crop estimate at from 2.29 billion pounds all the way to 2.60 billion pounds. Many are stating that the crop is looking better every day. With the vast acreage of what may be between 1.36 million bearing acres to 1.39 million bearing acres, there may very well be enough variance from one region to the next that may create a significant impact to the crop size. Only time will tell.  

April shipments will also be reported next week, the day before the subjective comes out.  So, it will be a busy week with more information available to help form a better opinion on how the industry will be marketing the current crop as well as the 2023/2024 crop. 

The industry has now shipped 1.798 billion pounds year to date, +6.85% ahead of last year at this time. Couple this with crop receipts currently at 2.541 billion pounds to date (off -12.4% to a year ago), the April shipments and new crop estimate will have a large influence on where the market goes from here. 

• Position Report: May 11, 2023 
• Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2023
• Position Report: June 9, 2023
• Objective Estimate: July 7, 2023

Bullish Trends

1. With strong shipments the last three months, and a smaller crop possibly coming, growers feel compelled to expect stronger pricing levels.

2. Pent up demand remains, as we wait for more data to set proper market levels. 

3. The acreage reports released, lend credence of bearing acreage flattening out. With this, future supply will likely be more in step with demand.  

Bearish Trends

1. Sales continue to drag down as growers stay off the market.  With rising price levels having no foundation of significant transactions taking place, this could lead to sudden pockets of ups and downs. 

2. Domestic sales remain well behind a year ago, which was well off from the previous year before that.  This is leading to a compounding negative effect. 

3. Still many unknowns revolving around the world economies and unsettled conflicts causing demand destruction in several regions of the world. 

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