Almond Market Update - March 31, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

I believe the count is at “Lucky 13”. Thirteen atmospheric rivers that is, which have crossed California this winter setting unprecedented records of rainfall and epic snowfall. California has received over 78 trillion gallons of rain-water over the last few months alone (as reported by the National Weather Service) and counting! This averages out to 27.6 inches of rainfall throughout the state. Mammoth Mountain has a reported 344 inches of snow, that is 28.6 feet of snow (three stories high). While it is not the wettest year for the Golden State, it does represent a massive relief for a state that has been besieged by several years of drought conditions. 

How this will have affected the almond bloom and what will transpire now throughout the growing period, remains to be seen. We will update you in the weeks ahead. While there are wild speculations out there (well maybe not so wild), one guess is as good as the next. For now, we will have to wait and see, like everyone. 

What we do know is the industry has now shipped 1.517 billion pounds, up +5.5% over last year at this time. February saw a bullish 245.7 million pounds shipped, up +23% over last year’s 199 million pounds. With exports up +29.2% over last year to date, demand remains strong in key markets such as India, ME and China/HK. According to the pundits, March is expected to be similar to February’s shipments. One cannot help but feel the industry has turned an important corner. If March proves to be similar, this would help to bring supply much closer into alignment with demand than previously expected. This would especially be true if the 2023/2024 crop is not a bounce back crop year, as once expected prior to the bloom.

• Bloom: While there may still be some blooms on trees, the chance for pollination is for the most part complete and pedal fall has commenced.
• Position Report: April 11, 2023
• Position Report: May 11, 2023 
• Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2023 @ 9am

Bullish Trends:

1. With a smaller crop this year topping out at approximately 2.55 billion pounds and shipments stronger than previous months, supply/demand appears to be more balanced now.   

2. Demand remains strong again this month and shipments continue to work well for the industry. March shipments should continue to improve the industry’s position.  

3. With potentially two smaller crops back to back, a larger carry-out may become a necessity as opposed to a detriment.  

Bearish Trends

1. Growers holding back this soon could be a problem since no one knows what this year’s crop size will be, yet.  

2. While exports have been strong thus far, India and China can go away just as quickly. Domestic the largest market, however, continues to lag well behind last year, and even further than the year before that. Not a good trend.

3. Shipments we are seeing now may have been done at lower transaction rates than where the market is today.  This could lead to lower shipments in the months further ahead. 

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