Almond Market Update - March 24, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

California continued to receive heavy rain, snow and wind throughout the month of February and into March at record levels. As we stand now, with so much poor weather throughout the state and for long non-stop durations, no one knows at this time, to what degree, how the 2023 almond crop will be impacted. As a result, many growers remain off the market or selling at a reduced pace until further information can be assessed. By this time next month, a better understanding should be available.

During March, the Almond Board of California released the February position report. February proved to be the strongest shipping month yet for the current crop year with 245.7 million pounds shipped, up +23% YOY. It also propelled the industry well ahead of last year, up +5.5% with 1.517 billion pounds now shipped year to date.

Crop receipts have also come almost to a stand still. The crop is more likely to top out at around 2.55 billion pounds, versus last year’s 2.9 billion pound crop. Clearly with less almonds harvested and the questionable supply for the new crop yet to be determined, the market levels have firmed accordingly, at least for the time being. 

• Bloom: While there may still be some blooms on trees, the chance for pollination is for the most part complete and petal fall has commenced.
• Position Report: April 11, 2023
• Position Report: May 11, 2023 
• Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2023 @ 9am

Bullish Trends:

1. The February shipment report clearly shows the demand for almonds world-wide remains strong, firming prices following the report has not caused much hesitation with buyers as consumption grows in the export markets.   

2. The industry has shipped 1.517 billion pounds, ahead of last year +5.5%, with a smaller crop this year.

3. The reduced carry-out this year may well be in control depending on what the next crop size will be. 

Bearish Trends

1. With many growers remaining off the market, this swing could be difficult to make up later in the year. If the crop does set well and becomes a “good crop” after all, it may put out the fire.  

2. The domestic market remains the single largest market, behind in shipments -5.5% to last year, and -13% behind the year before. This is problematic, especially for the ingredient market.

3. We don’t know how the orchards will have handled the poor weather during the bloom, but the industry should also not jump to any conclusions or allow emotion to rule the day. With the high amount of bearing acreage in the ground, a larger crop is still possible.

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