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Almond Market Update - June 23, 2023

Weather in California continues to astound us as another week of 70s and 80s continues. Meanwhile, temperatures in Texas are burning things up with record highs of 115 degrees. Currently, the extended forecast shows that we may have to wait for the last day of the month to reach triple digits! In the meantime, we will continue to enjoy our spring-like conditions, even though summer has officially started.

While the Almond Board released the May position report two weeks ago, transactions continue to be mild, but steady. However, the USDA bids are currently out and being worked on by many suppliers. This will result in almost 30 million pounds of almonds being extracted from the supply chain over the next 5 months.

Crop receipts this year should top out at 2.57 billion pounds, down 11.8% from last year's crop of 2.910 billion. With the weather being what it was through the bloom, many growers continue to choose not to sell with concern about the crop size this year, leading to a more restrictive supply. Now the industry finds itself feeling behind in where it would like to be at this point, however in reality, the industry is flat to last year at the same time with 2.191 billion pounds shipped year-to-date. The expected carry-out this year may be around 750 million pounds (or lower if we can have a good close to the crop year), but a preferred carry-out would be sub 500 million pounds. This will keep the market in check until the Subjective Estimate is released in three weeks.

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

  • Growing Period: Orchards are looking happy as there has been mild weather and plenty of water to irrigate with this year. 
  • Position Report: July 11, 2023
  • Objective Estimate: Revised to July 12, 2023 - 9AM PST

Almond Market Insights - Week 25 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. Market levels remain historically low for buyers to take advantage of the current crop.

  2. Shipping issues call for forward purchasing as there is some concern over a UPS strike looming.

  3. California continues to focus on moving the current crop with an understanding that the new crop will be late and may be lighter than the last crop year.

Bearish Trends:

  1. Despite moderately lower price levels, demand remains subdued at this time. Buyers are requesting shipments further out, while sellers are seeking prompt shipments. This issue needs to be resolved soon.

  2. Delaying the Objective Estimate has upset many growers and will only slow the process down for selling the new crop.

  3. Much work remains ahead of the industry in the weeks and months immediately ahead, if supply is going to be diminished to match demand.

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