Almond Market Update - June 12, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

June in California usually signifies temperatures exceeding 90 degrees; however, we continue to experience spring-like conditions that no one is going to complain about, as we know that 100-degree temperatures will be here soon enough, but not in the extended forecast! As previously described, the longer bloom conditions coupled with the cooler weather may result in a later harvest than usual. But, there has been nothing usual about this crop from the onset.

The Almond Board released the May position report on Friday, June 9, 2023. For the most part, crop receipts are done, with 2.566 billion pounds received, down 11.8% compared to last year's crop of 2.910 billion. The decline in crop size was welcomed as the previous year had shipping issues at all the ports around the country, which delayed shipments and created a backlog that became too much for the industry to overcome. As a result, there was a carryout of 837 million pounds. With the larger than desired carryout, the industry had a total supply even larger than the previous year at 3.385 billion pounds.

Currently, we stand at 2.191 billion pounds shipped year to date, which is flat compared to a year ago. With two months left in the current crop year, total shipments will look very similar to last year's 2.634 billion pounds. This would leave a carryout of 750 million pounds. If the Subjective Estimate for the new crop year 2023/2024, which is projected to be 2.5 billion pounds (2.45 billion after loss and exempt), holds true, it would result in a total supply of 3.2 billion pounds for the next crop year. All attention will now turn to the Objective Estimate, which will be announced on July 7, 2023.

• Growing Period: We are in the final weeks of the growing season, and with mild temperatures, farming has been a little easier with reduced insect pressure as well as lighter irrigation. Overall, the trees look healthy and well.
• Objective Estimate: July 7, 2023
• Position Report: July 11, 2023

Bullish Trends:

1. Market levels have generated more buying interest this week as buyers move to fulfill their remaining needs for the current crop year.

2. Certain varieties and sizes have started to become harder to find as we close in on the end of the crop year.

3. As seen in the May position report, new crop sales are far behind any time I can recall. California is determined to sell out of the current crop before making a more significant attempt to sell the new crop.

Bearish Trends:

1. Total shipments for May were 195.67 million pounds, a decrease of 24% compared to last year's 257.55 million pounds. Currently, uncommitted inventories have surpassed last year's levels, totaling 677.42 million pounds compared to last year's 660.0 million pounds.

2. Export shipments were 140.7 million pounds, representing a 27.2% decrease compared to last year's 193.4 million pounds. Domestic shipments continue to fall further behind, with 55 million pounds shipped, a 14% decline compared to a year ago, or a 7% decline year-over-year.

3. While the industry has now reacted to the two consecutive months of a slowdown in both sales and shipments by offering and lowering price levels, it may prove to be too late to have any effect on the remaining crop year.

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