Almond Market Update - January 13, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

The weatherwomen and men have been very busy again this week. Storms continued to roll through all of California. One does not have to drive more than a few blocks in any direction without finding trees down caused by the heavy rain and followed by strong winds. Last week, we reported the snow-pack at 179% to normal, this week it is reported to be as high as 200% at the time of this report. While there has been a small break in the last 24 hours another storm is arriving this weekend and is expected to last through Monday.

The Almond Board released the December position report on Thursday January 12, 2023.  The industry has now shipped 1.042 billion pounds, which is just -1.87%, behind last year’s 1.062 billion shipped this time last year. Shipments for December were strong with 206.4 million pounds up 9.3% above last December’s 188.8 million pounds.

Domestic shipments remain trailing last year’s shipments -8.7% to date. Last year the industry shipped a record 64.3 million pounds versus this year’s 52.5 million pounds. This may certainly be due to the economic conditions the U.S. is experiencing with food prices (not that almonds are contributing to higher prices). Consumers look to spread their shopping dollars on the basics.   

Export shipments on the other hand were a shining star with 153.9 million pounds shipped up 23.6% versus 124.5 million pounds last year. This was influenced by demand from the EU, India and the Middle East. While not a record for a December (December 2020 holds that record), it was the second best December for exports in history and points to stronger shipping execution and demand.  

• PTNPA: January 13, 2023 through January 16, 2023
• Position Report: February 9, 2023

Bullish Trends:

1. As we can see from increased export shipments; logistics and an improved supply chain are pointing in that direction and should continue in the months ahead.

2. Demand is also improving as demonstrated with export sales.  With China removing Covid restrictions, expect to see this all important market also join along in the weeks and months ahead.

3. Market levels remain at some of the best values the industry has seen for years which should continue to help grow future demand.

Bearish Trends

1. Certainly drought concerns for this year will not be the top concern and with the current bearing acreage being flat to last year, yields per acreage could improve.

2. Supply could continue to top demand as domestic sales continue to trend in the wrong direction, which is the industry’s largest market, when needed the most.

3. $7.00 for a carton of eggs?  Inflation in the food segment remains on everyone’s mind, consumers are forced to stretch their dollars on the staples.

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