Almond Market Update - January 6, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

Happy New Year! As we welcome in 2023, out west we are getting pummeled with storm after storm.   It has caught many by surprise as we have received so much rain in Northern California that we experienced flooding in the North Valley with levy breaches shutting down a major freeway (Highway 99) for two days.  There have been many power outages because of downed power lines due to tree falls.  Sadly, there has been loss of life due to both the flooding and trees falling.   The Sierras have received so much snow that several of the ski resorts had to shut down to dig out.  The statewide snowpack stands at 179% to normal of averages for this date. California is expected to see continued rain and snow for the next 7 days, with the threat of flooding in parts of the state.

The Almond Board will release December’s shipments next Thursday January 12, 2023.  The industry stands at 835.6 total pounds shipped to date through November compared to 873 million pounds last year, down 4.28%.  With the objective estimate of 2.60 billion pounds, crop receipts will be especially scrutinized not to mention new sales and commitments.  The industry will work to keep supply in step with demand. 

• Position Report: January 12, 2023
• PTNPA: January 13, 2023 through January 16, 2023
• Position Report: February 9, 2023

Bullish Trends:

1. A better logistics outlook is in the cards for 2023, according to shipping giant A.P. Moller – Maersk.  “While issues may remain in the short-term, the outlook is positive for pressure coming down in the not-so-distant future.” 

2. With aggressive market levels, demand has picked up.  Buyer confidence has also increased as inflationary pressures may also be easing.

3. With the New Year comes resolutions, healthy eating always improves, and almonds are first on the consumers list.  

Bearish Trends

1. With the drought possibly over (at least for the time being), thoughts now are raised for a larger crop coming next year adding to increased supply to manage.

2. Growing supply and lower export demand, while logistic issues persist, is creating a drag on overall shipments.

3. Inflation remains an issue especially on the food supply side, consumers may look to spread their spending on essentials.

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