Almond Market Update - February 3, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

California snowpack levels are at the highest point in four decades after a series of nine (9) severe storms (atmospheric rivers) came through the region last month, according to the state water officials. Even more interesting, the total snow water equivalent accumulated has risen to 33.7 inches, which is representing 205 percent of the average for this time of year, according to the California Department of Water Resources that was announced on Wednesday this week. These results are formulated from 130 electronic snow sensors statewide and are outpacing the 1982-1983 season, which previously had set the record. 

For what it's worth, despite these amazing results thus far, the agency warns that there are two months still remaining, in which the snowpack usually peaks. “Every day that it does not rain or snow, the conditions are drying.” According to Punxsutawney Phil, expect six (6) more weeks of winter. 

How six (6) more weeks of winter effects the almond industry remains to be seen.  Current weather conditions have been dry and cold for the last few days, with a chance of rain on Saturday/Sunday across the growing region. Each day we are moving closer to bloom, if you need a date for the start of the bloom let’s use February 8th. After a quick walk through the orchard, bud formation can be seen on the trees already. 

With the industry sitting at a little over 1.04 billion pounds shipped to date, we await next week’s position report with industry expectations greater than the 177 million pounds shipped last January.  This should move the industry into a positive shipped position since the first month of the new crop year.

Click here for the latest almond position report!

• Position Report: February 9, 2023  (Same time as the beginning of the 2023 Bloom).
• Position Report: March 9, 2023

Bullish Trends:

1. With the realization that the market may have hit the bottom, demand has started to increase appropriately over the last two weeks.

2. Expect to see a rush of business getting done prior to next week’s position report.

3. Assumptions are for demand to improve as markets show life once again. Logistics continue to improve, and buyers are taking advantage locking up their short term and long-term needs.  

Bearish Trends

1. There is still an over-supply of almonds to sell. With a potential new crop on the way, which could rebound from the three-year drought, supply versus demand may not be corrected in the year ahead.

2. There is plenty of water in the hills as the snowpack is at historic levels, which is where California gets 40% of its water supply from.   

3. The market remains out of sync on many levels. Specific to tree nuts, consumption is trending down, perhaps a force of energy prices, overall cost of living, interest rates increasing putting pressure on the average consumers spending.   

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