Almond Market Update - February 17, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

National Almond Day was yesterday, February 16th as we welcome in the 2023 Almond Bloom. The bloom has just begun and so far conditions look good. Driving up and down the valley, one can see different stages of the bloom depending on the regions, varieties and even the ages of the trees. The younger orchards look especially energized with flowers popping out everywhere. While the more mature orchards are slowly developing. This will not be a flash bloom as we experienced last year, but rather, looks very normal and progressing nicely at this point. 

We have had cold weather and high winds to start the week, but the weather appears to be starting to cooperate with the bloom and is expected to hold true for the next 5 days. Temperatures are dropping in the evenings and mornings into the low 30’s with high temperatures during the afternoon, up to the low 60’s throughout the growing areas. Bees like 55 degrees and above to come out of their hives and do their thing, so we may only see 5 or 6 hours of bee activity during the day. There is a storm forecasted for this time next week as well which will be in the middle of the bloom but should not prove to be too much to handle for the over 1.3 million acres of almonds spread throughout California. 

Last week, the Almond Board of California released the January shipment report. It was a “true trifecta” as shipments for January was an all-time record for the month with 229.6 million pounds, up +29.6% over last years 177 million pounds. We also had the largest sales month historically with an impressive 350 million pounds sold up an astounding +69% over last January’s 207 million pounds. The industry has now shipped 1.27 billion pounds, +2.6% ahead of last year at this time. Compound this with crop receipts slowing down dramatically having only received 98.5 million pounds for January, this puts crop receipts at 2.475 billion pounds  -12.5% behind a year ago. The general consensus puts the crop size at approximately 2.55 billion pounds now. 

• Bloom: Progressing throughout the state - The further south you go, the more bloom you see. 
• Position Report: March 9, 2023
• Position Report: April 11, 2023 

Bullish Trends:

1. With the positive results from the January position report, the market appears to be showing strength. The bottom may have been reached.

2. Demand remains strong as many buyers have waited for this moment prior to their long-term commitments. 

3. Uncommitted inventories are at 1.15 billion pounds, down -11.4% to last year at this time, and total commitments are even with last year at 840.1 million pounds. Tracking well for a lower carry-out. 

Bearish Trends

1. The new crop outlook always plays a role in marketing the current crop in the second half of the year. The bloom will be watched closely as the potential for a bounce back crop is out there in the orchards. 

2. As we have now moved through the highest retail consumption period for nuts, can the industry continue at this pace in the second half of the crop year?   

3. With market levels firming, will this tip the scales in the wrong direction and blow out the candle as it just got lit?  

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