Almond Market Update - December 9, 2022

By: Richard Andonian

California welcomed a storm over the weekend, including a significant amount of snow, with totals currently 175% to normal with a base of over 102” in some areas. Some light showers are expected over the next 24 hours on and off through-out the north region of the state. It is a good start, but so much more will be needed.

The 50th annual Almond Board Conference of California was held this week at the Sacramento “Safe Credit Union” Convention Center. It was well attended this year following compared to the previous two years. The main theme heard throughout the conference and certainly on most everyone’s mind is the large carry-over the industry has had to endure along with another large crop harvested this year. With crop receipts at 1.657 billion pounds to date, the objective estimate of 2.60 billion pounds remains the number the industry is marketing to. Next week’s shipment report will be a key indicator and add additional insights into not only the crop receipts, but also on new sales and commitments. Estimates for November shipments for November are similar to October shipments of 215 million pounds. 

• Position Report: December 13, 2022
• Position Report: January 12, 2023

Bullish Trends:

1. Historically low pricing should be significant enough to drive volume and consumption throughout this crop year.
2. The Almond Board’s number one strategic priority is marketing the goodness of almonds and their benefits, building global demand.
3. Exporting almonds, while it has perhaps never been so complicated, has great assistance through the advocacy of the Almond Alliance as well as the Almond Board as they pave the way and help the industry meet multiple requirements that over 100 countries puts in front of us.

Bearish Trends

1. The industry will be challenged in this market environment to get low prices in the hands of the consumer where grocery retail remains high from the impacts of labor and energy costs. Retailers may want to hold onto their category dollars.

2. If there is a global recession emerging, consumption at any price could be slowed as consumers spread their budgets to cover only the most basic of needs.

3. Supply may very well continue to overshadow demand as the industry trails in shipments each month falling behind where it needs to be in an effort to avoiding another excessively large carry-out next year.

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