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Almond Market Update - December 29, 2022

From everyone at ofi, we wish you a happy and healthy New Year! Despite the uncertainty in the world, we can be grateful for those that surround us every day while we look forward to what is coming in 2023.

California continues to receive rain and snow, which is great for all the western states. We have had storms pass through one after the other with more coming this week and next week. Could this be the winter we so badly need to bust the three-year drought? Most of the Sierra's received between five to eight inches of new snow this week and more is on the way, much more. These have been wet storms, not only delivering snow but high-water content as well, which is great for our reservoirs. The snowpack is trending ahead of last year at this time, too.  

The almond industry stands at 835.6 total pounds shipped to date versus 873 million pounds last year, down 4.28%. The objective estimate of 2.60 billion pounds for this year’s crop size is what the industry is marketing to, following last year’s 2.92-billion-pound crop and the historic 837-million-pound carry-out. Expect the industry to come out swinging to start the new year strong.

Upcoming Industry Milestones

  • Position Report: January 12, 2023
  • Position Report: February 9, 2023

Almond Insight - End of Year Trends

Bullish Trends:

  1. The industry is poised to have a strong 2023, as demand continues to grow with historically low prices spurring on innovation and growth.

  2. Positive news from economists this week as key indicators cast doubts on a global recession.  

  3. Healthy snacks will be on everyone’s mind in the new year, following all the comfort food consumed during the holiday season.   

Bearish Trends

  1. Supply will continue to be on everyone’s mind as it far exceeds the current demand cycle.

  2. Continuous winter storms appear to be putting any concerns of water shortages this year to the back burner; another bumper crop could be coming.

  3. With shipping issues continuing to be a factor for export, there will be a continuous drag on boosting shipments above what we have recently been experiencing.

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