Almond Market Update - December 22, 2022

By: Richard Andonian

Happy Holidays! For those of you having to travel, be safe out there! With this being the first official week of winter, it sounds like it will be a doozy as the “Arctic Bomb” brings extreme low temperatures to the Midwest and upper eastern states affecting as many as 90 million people. They are saying that the temperature can drop by 30 degrees within minutes! We’ve seen cold temperatures this week, but no rain in sight until possibly next week.

The Almond Board of California’s November shipment report reflected 204 million pounds shipped, leaving the industry behind in total shipments by -4.28%, 835.6 total pounds shipped to date versus 873 million pounds last year. Only 493 million pounds were received for the month bringing the total year to date to 2.15 billion pounds, which is 7.00% behind total receipts of a year ago. The objective estimate of 2.60 billion pounds is still very much in focus.  

We go into the holidays trailing where the industry would prefer to be in just about every column. Sales commitments now stand at 691 million pounds, representing 41% of the crop shipped and or sold. To be comfortable, the industry would like to be at or above 54% sold, which has been the average over the last five years.

• Position Report: January 12, 2023
• Position Report: February 9, 2023

Bullish Trends:

1. The industry offers historically low pricing while all services and support remain high!
2. During the Almond Board Conference, the board revealed marketing plans for 2023 which will help build demand in key strategic markets.  
3. January usually brings increased consumption for healthy snacks following the holidays. 

Bearish Trends

1. Almond supply remains the major issue for the industry. With new shipments lagging due to many issues (explosive crop growth in 2020, shipping constraints, carry-out from the previous crop) inventories remain full.

2. Pricing alone may not be enough as consumption will tell the future for the almond industry.

3. After a great start to our California snowpack, greater attention will be paid to January which has historically been the wettest month.

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