Almond Market Update - December 15, 2022

By: Richard Andonian

A winter storm hit California over the weekend and continues to move through the western states. Our statewide snowpack level is more than 200% above normal for this time of year. Get your boards out, it will be great shredding up in the Sierras! While this could not be better news for the state, it’s also important to remember we had a great start to winter last year, and then struggled with one of the driest winters on record. Let’s hope this is not the case again this year, as we will need a great deal more before we can call this drought over with.

The November shipping report was released on December 13 by the Almond Board of California. Only 493 million pounds were received for the month bringing the total year to date to 2.15 billion pounds, which is -7.00% behind total receipts of a year ago. The objective estimate of 2.60 billion pounds is still very much in focus.  

November resulted in 204 million pounds shipped, leaving the industry behind in total shipments by -4.28%, 835.6 million total pounds shipped versus 873 million pounds last year at this time; not bad considering all that the industry is fighting through this year, however, the industry will have to pick up the pace to avoid another carry-over similar to last year’s 836 million pounds if not larger.

Exports for the month were 142.7 million pounds, down -8.5% from a year ago. Both the Middle East and India were up for the month as seen below, with the Middle East remaining the only export market overall up from last year. Year to date, exports are off by -3.4% versus year over year.

Domestic shipments were 61.60 million pounds, down -5.2% from last year, this brings domestic sales down in total year to date shipments to -6.33% 244.4 million pounds.

New sales of 200 million pounds for the month were added in November, versus last year’s 226 million pounds. The greatest drop off in commitments was on the domestic side, off -30% while export sales down a modest -4%.

Sales commitments now stand at 691 million pounds, representing 41% of the crop shipped and or sold. By this point in time the industry would like to be at 53.8% sold, which is the average over the last five years.

• Position Report: January 12, 2023
• Position Report: February 9, 2023

Bullish Trends:

1. We continue to offer historically low pricing while the quality of almonds remains high.
2. Consumer demand remains as we see almonds used in so many products throughout grocery, drug, and mass categories.
3. As market conditions get sorted out (we are seeing significant drop in energy costs and inflation declining), sales should also follow suit.

Bearish Trends

1. The almond industry may continue to be challenged by the supply side as shipments lag due to global inflation, constraints, and the large carry-out from the previous crop fill-up inventories.
2. Consumption at any price could be slowed as consumers spread their budgets to cover only the most basic of needs.   
3. California received a strong storm this week, dumping five feet of snow into the Sierras after a similar storm two weeks earlier. While we aren’t completely past it, the snow provides some optimism in combatting the drought.

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