Almond Market Update - April 21, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

The colder temperatures we received throughout March and thus far into April may have slowed crop progression down. With that said, the willingness for some growers to sell has also continued to slow sales down. As we wait to hear how the crop is doing, one industry analyst has already released an estimate for the 2023 crop to be 2.66 billion pounds, based on 1.361 million bearing acres, which works out to a yield of 1,958 lbs. per acre. It is best to view this as a data point, yet logical when we consider the amount of water received during winter and the reality of close to the same bearing acres to be harvested. With no one really knowing what will come off the trees starting in August, more data points will continue to be shared as they develop.  

Last week, the Almond Board released March shipments. Monthly shipments were 281 million pounds, which was the largest single shipment month since October of 2020, and marks the third month in a row of record shipments. The importance of this cannot be over-emphasized as the industry now sits ahead of last year’s shipments by +6.85% with 1.798 billion pounds shipped year to date. Coupled with crop receipts currently at 2.541 billion pounds to date, which is off -12.4% to a year ago, we can clearly see supply is becoming more aligned now with overall demand for almonds.  

The market has been relatively quiet as price levels have risen (rightfully so) following the shipping report and the poor bloom weather. There is demand, but thus far matching up buyer’s expectations to seller’s expectations has been mediocre. Perhaps as supply becomes more constrained and demand becomes more urgent, the two will meet and business will start getting done again. 

• Growing Period: Weather remains unseasonably cold averaging about 10 degrees lower for this time of the year.  Warmer weather is forecasted in the weeks ahead.    
• Acreage Report: April 27, 2023
• Position Report: May 11, 2023 
• Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2023
• Position Report: June 9, 2023

Bullish Trends

1. With the last three record months, shipments are now up +6.85% year-over-year. Supply appears to be better balanced to demand. This also brings a potential carry-out of 600 million pounds closer into play.  

2. Uncommitted inventory is also below last year’s remaining supply by -5.9%, lending more support to the bullish outlook. 

3. The 2023/2024 crop, while still in question, will become more in focus in the weeks ahead leading to perhaps even more bullish sentiment.  

Bearish Trends

1. Commitments are down compared to this time last year, which translates to buyers purchasing hand to mouth.  

2. These record shipments are from prior sales in November and December when market levels were at their low. Domestic sales remain slow to a year ago, -5.75%, with no sign of improvement.  

3. With many growers off the market while there is still a great deal of supply remaining, it may come back to haunt them should the 2023 crop expectations improve.  

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