Almond Market Update - April 10, 2023

By: Richard Andonian

California has had a full week with no measurable rainfall, it has been a while since we have had a dry spell. Temperatures however, remained about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year - in the high 30’s in the morning hours and reaching highs of 58 degrees during the day. Not exactly the most ideal growing conditions, but this is about to switch. Forecasts for the holiday weekend see temperatures rising to the low 50’s in the mornings and daytime highs in the mid-70’s. Now that is more like it! It is April after all.  

With no solid indication or factual data to predict how the winter storms will have played a role in the 2023 crop, we will wait patiently for estimates to be established. Expect to hear more information in the weeks ahead. We are entering a period of time now where the trees, if they are going to shed their almonds, will do so soon. By the end of April, more indicators will be available and shared, certainly on May 12th as the first official estimate by NASS will be announced. 

It does not look like this will be a bounce back year for the crop, however. The 2020/2021 crop was a 3.1 billion pound harvest, followed by the 2021/2022 crop at 2.92 billion pounds, and this current crop 2022/2023 appears to be topping out at around 2.55 billion pounds.  

• Bloom: Weather remained very cold and rainy through March, with temperatures below normal. 
• Position Report: April 11, 2023
• Position Report: May 11, 2023 
• Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2023 @ 9am

Bullish Trends

1. Limited transactions have occurred over the last few weeks as growers wait for crop progression or sell on a limited basis, as needed. With limited sellers, the market has firmed during this period.  

2. March shipments are expected to exceed February’s record level of 229 million pounds. This has helped to bring the expected carry-out down to a more manageable level when compared to last year’s 836 million pounds. 

3. The 2023/2024 crop is appearing to be a concern with poor bloom conditions prevailing, the very wet winter may also lead to quality issues with insect damage once the weather heats up and the cutbacks by many growers due to poor market levels.   

Bearish Trends

1. Economic conditions throughout the world are still volatile with high inflation, almond consumption is down in some sectors. This also holds true for our domestic market, which is the largest most developed market there is for almonds. 

2. Exports have been transactional to this point, if prices continue to increase, this could slow things down. Domestic is already behind and the industry can ill-afford to miss any opportunities regardless of next year’s crop. 

3. Shipments in February and March have all been at low price levels, thus the historic record shipments. With less sales in these two months, future shipments may suffer.

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